Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Slides to $87,775 as Fed Uncertainty and Bitcoin ETF Outflows Deepen Market Selloff

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Falls to $87,775 as Market Faces Fed Pressure, ETF Slowdown, and Liquidity Stress

BTC-USD Drops 4% to Two-Month Low Despite Wall Street Rebound

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) extended its decline to $87,775, down 4.03%, marking its weakest level since September. The digital asset failed to hold the $90,000 threshold even as U.S. equities rallied on Nvidia’s strong earnings. The drop erased nearly $3,700 in 24 hours, deepening the correction from the October peak near $126,000. Market capitalization stands at $1.82 trillion, while 24-hour trading volume spiked above $85 billion, confirming broad liquidation pressure rather than illiquidity. The price swing between $88,540 and $92,943 defines a new volatile range, and sentiment remains fragile as investors weigh the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Fed Divide and Data Gaps Undermine Market Stability

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October 28–29 meeting exposed a sharp policy split. Some officials backed a December 9–10 rate cut, while others urged restraint due to persistent inflation. Futures now price only a 34% chance of easing. The situation worsened when the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that its October employment report was canceled after the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, forcing the next release to combine two months of data on December 16—after the Fed meeting.

When the delayed September jobs report finally arrived, it showed +119,000 new jobs versus the 50,000 consensus, with unemployment rising to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. That mix of softening growth and sticky inflation fueled confusion across risk assets. Ten-year Treasury yields held around 4.12%, and the U.S. Dollar Index steadied at 100.04, leaving Bitcoin exposed to rate-sensitive outflows.

Technical Breakdown: $86,500 Support Defines the Line Between Pause and Panic

BTC-USD violated the descending channel that has capped price action since mid-October. Immediate resistance now sits at $91,500, with heavier supply near $94,000, aligned with the 50-day moving average. The RSI (34) indicates oversold momentum, but the MACD (–4,820) and momentum oscillator (–15,200)** remain deeply negative. The next structural floor lies at $86,500–$87,000, followed by a secondary base near $82,400. Daily volume rose 12%, showing sellers remain in control. Unless Bitcoin recaptures $92,500–$93,000 on volume expansion, technical posture stays bearish.

Institutional Wallet Activity Contradicts Retail Liquidation

On-chain metrics reveal a silent divergence between large and small holders. The count of wallets holding ≥ 1,000 BTC reached 1,386, the highest since July 2025, signaling continued institutional accumulation. At the same time, retail wallets under 1 BTC dropped 2.4% week-to-week. Exchange balances fell 1.2%, pointing to capital migrating off trading venues into cold storage. Historically, such withdrawals accompany long-term accumulation, though price recovery usually lags several weeks. Whale inflows exceeding $100 million were recorded across Binance and Coinbase during the intraday selloff, confirming that deep-pocket entities are absorbing panic liquidity.

ETF and Derivatives Data Reveal Defensive Positioning

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) declined 3.9% to $49.11, its weakest print in five weeks. Aggregate spot-ETF inflows slowed to $19 million over 72 hours, down from $128 million earlier this month. Open interest on CME Bitcoin futures contracted 7%, while funding rates turned negative on most major exchanges—evidence that short sellers are paying a premium to maintain positions. The Money Flow Index (24.6) confirms net outflows, and the Awesome Oscillator (–13,971) underscores fading momentum. This shift from leveraged longs to protective shorts illustrates a market bracing for prolonged consolidation.

Macro Correlation: Fed Caution Neutralizes Nvidia-Driven Risk Rally

Despite Nvidia (NVDA) posting $57 billion Q3 revenue and lifting risk appetite across tech equities, Bitcoin failed to respond. The Nasdaq Composite +0.95% and Dow +0.65% gains underscored the divergence: digital assets no longer track equities one-for-one. With crypto’s yield disadvantage growing against bonds, risk rotation favors traditional assets. Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation to the Nasdaq slipped to 0.78 from 0.92 in October, signaling decoupling under tightening liquidity.

Kraken’s Confidential IPO Filing Adds Structural Tension

The news that Kraken confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO injected mixed sentiment. While a public listing from a top exchange should strengthen regulatory legitimacy, timing amid market stress sparked debate. Analysts view the move as a bid to capture institutional attention while valuations remain subdued. If successful, Kraken’s debut could re-energize crypto equity flows in early 2026, but short-term, it intensified selling as traders raised cash to front expected volatility around listing headlines.

Global Trading Patterns Show Diverging Liquidity Flows

Asian desks, primarily Singapore and Hong Kong, trimmed leveraged exposure as regional funding spreads widened. Conversely, European funds increased spot allocations, encouraged by euro strength and falling bund yields. Latin-American traders continued modest accumulation as local currencies weakened, maintaining Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against dollar volatility. Cross-exchange data show that over 41% of 24-hour volume originated from offshore derivatives markets—proof that speculative capital, not organic demand, currently drives intraday swings.

Short-Term Market Map and Sentiment Indicators

Bitcoin’s price structure remains compressed between $86,500 support and $94,000 resistance. Break above $94,000 would invalidate the downtrend and expose $98,000–$102,000 as upside targets. Failure below $86,000 could extend losses toward $82,000, where mid-2024 accumulation formed. Sentiment metrics from Glassnode’s Fear & Greed Index slid to 29, signaling “fear.” Yet funding normalization and rising whale wallet concentration suggest baseline accumulation rather than structural exit. The Meyka AI Score F reflects the near-term bearish bias but does not capture on-chain strength building under the surface.

Broader Crypto Context: Altcoins Mixed Amid Liquidity Squeeze

Altcoins mirrored Bitcoin’s turbulence. Ethereum (ETH-USD) dropped 2.7% to $2,892, XRP (XRP-USD) slid 3.0% to $2.03, while Solana (SOL-USD) gained 2.3% to $133, supported by inflows into new 21Shares Solana ETF (TSOL) on CBOE. The divergence highlights capital rotation toward layer-1 ecosystems offering yield via staking. However, overall crypto market capitalization contracted 2.8% to $2.23 trillion, led by Bitcoin’s dominance falling to 67.4%.

Verdict: BTC-USD — HOLD / NEAR-TERM BEARISH BIAS

Bitcoin trades in a technically fragile but structurally supported environment. The $86,500–$87,000 floor is critical; maintaining it keeps medium-term recovery potential alive. Institutional wallets are rising, ETFs are slowing, and macro policy remains the decisive catalyst. Until the Fed clarifies its December stance or BTC reclaims $94,000, the market favors neutral-to-bearish positioning with selective accumulation by large holders.

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